Road safety strategies necessary in the second Decade of Road Safety

www.jogh.org • doi: 10.7189/jogh.12.03081 1 2022 • Vol. 12 • 03081 While transport is integral to mobility and the economy, the hidden social costs of rapid motorisation are tremendous. As of 2019, there were around 1.3 million traffic fatalities, accounting for 2.3% of the total deaths and ranked 12th of the causes of mortality worldwide [1]. Road injuries also led to 79 million disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) in 2019, accounting for 3.1% of the global DALYs and ranked the 6th among other causes [1]. On average, road traffic deaths and injuries led to a 3% loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [2]. Half of the global road traffic deaths are amongst the most vulnerable groups of pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists [2]. Traffic fatality is the leading cause of death for young people aged 5-29 [2]. All these underline the equity dimension as these groups are bearing the costs of traffic deaths disproportionately. The serious negative transport externalities can dampen the goal of achieving social sustainability in transport [3]. Providing safe mobility for all aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals of “Sustainable Cities and Communities” and “Good Health” that “provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems” [4].

W hile transport is integral to mobility and the economy, the hidden social costs of rapid motorisation are tremendous. As of 2019, there were around 1.3 million traffic fatalities, accounting for 2.3% of the total deaths and ranked 12th of the causes of mortality worldwide [1]. Road injuries also led to 79 million disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) in 2019, accounting for 3.1% of the global DALYs and ranked the 6th among other causes [1]. On average, road traffic deaths and injuries led to a 3% loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [2]. Half of the global road traffic deaths are amongst the most vulnerable groups of pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists [2]. Traffic fatality is the leading cause of death for young people aged 5-29 [2]. All these underline the equity dimension as these groups are bearing the costs of traffic deaths disproportionately. The serious negative transport externalities can dampen the goal of achieving social sustainability in transport [3]. Providing safe mobility for all aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals of "Sustainable Cities and Communities" and "Good Health" that "provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems" [4].
Despite a decline in global traffic fatality rates (per 100 000 population) in the past two decades from 19.1 to 16.7, road safety remains a prominent public health issue. First, there has been a general increase in the absolute number of global road traffic deaths since the 1990s, except during 2012 and 2015 [5]. Since then, it has rebounded and reached around 1.3 million [5]. It is expected that road traffic fatalities will rank among the top five causes of mortality by 2030 [6]. Second, there are still significant variations in traffic deaths rate (per capita). In 2019, the African average was around 1.6 times higher than the global average and 3.7 times higher than the European counterpart [5]. Also, traffic fatalities in low-income nations have been rising since 2013 and reached a record high of 28.34 per 100 000 population -a level 3 times higher than the high-income nations [5]. Third, the trend was far from the United Nations' (first) Decade of Road Safety target of reducing road fatalities by 50%. With increased motorisation, the challenge of fatality reduction is huge. With the second Decade of Road Safety (2021-2030), one needs to go beyond modelling fatality records and measures, but to examine and advocate road safety strategies worldwide for effective policy formulation and implementation to "defatalise" transportation [3]. Despite the progress made in advancing road safety in the first Decade of Road Safety, global discrepancies of road fatalities remain large and the challenge of transport defatalization is formidable.
Identifying synergies among the nine road safety strategy components and integrating them into a holistic policy package can help to achieve the ambitious goal of reducing road fatalities in the Second Decade of Road Safety.

A GLOBAL OVERVIEW
To understand global road safety performances and desirable policy practices, we look at the situations in eight developed (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) and eight developing nations (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia and Turkey), which accounted for 75% of the global GDP and 60% of road fatalities [7]. Conceptually, transport decoupling is measured by the income elasticity of negative transport externalities, including traffic fatalities. Absolute strong decoupling, which indicates a concurrent reduction in traffic fatalities and growth of the economy, is the best outcome [3]. In road safety, the nine-component strategic framework is instrumental (elaborated below) [8]. Figure 1 illustrates the nine core policy components. In each component, national policy performances are rated based on the levels of details, scope and degree of sophistication. The corresponding details of each rating are delineated next to the component. Finally, we adopt the method of Association Rule Mining (ARM) to identify underlying synergies among policy components in achieving transport defatalisation, which are visualised by different lines at the outer edge of the chart. Results are further elaborated below.
To look at the global divide, Figure 1  ing countries remained large. Among the developing nations, there was generally a lack of road safety vision and objectives before 2010.
Another important feature of policy planning is "Targets" (Tar) and "Action Plan" (Act). Over the last three decades, the gap between the developed and developing countries has reduced substantially. Quantifiable targets were set under a 3 to 5-year timeframe. Some also pinpoint the reduction of risky driving behaviour and number of offenders. For action plans, both developed and developing countries have progressed significantly, too. Good practices include user-oriented measures targeting at vulnerable groups like motorcyclists, child passengers and pedestrians.
With "Monitoring and Evaluation" (Mon), the progress achieved in developing countries has been notable ( Figure  1). Successful developing nations' earlier tactics focused on deterring aggressive and impaired driving behaviour, such as speeding, drink-driving and not wearing seat belts. More recently, countries have proactively tackled new problems such as distracted driving and aggressive behaviour. Some countries conduct regular road safety reviews within a 2 to 3-year timeframe. The process provides feedback for adjusting the targets and associated policy instruments.
"Quantitative Modelling" (Mod) is an area that developing countries have been seriously lagging behind as a group (Figure 1). Brazil, China and Turkey have done better in this component with efforts to improve the official databases with spatial and temporal information on crashes, causes, and counts of injuries and fatalities. As "Research and Development" (R&D) is very much dependent on data and quantitative modelling, developing countries have lagged behind even more notably (Figure 1). Innovations in vehicle designs (eg, electronic stability control system & smart restraint systems) and regulatory techniques on roads (eg, US 5-star safety rating system) were practised in Japan, the UK and the USA.
As a group, developing countries have been catching up quickly in "Institutional Framework" (Ins) (Figure  1). In Brazil, China and Russia, a highest-level national council or committee was established. For vertical integration, Brazil, China and Mexico cooperated with international NGOs in initiating pilot plans and implementing safety campaigns based on the specific geographic context. In Australia, Canada, France and the UK, community groups work with local authorities to realise policy objectives at the local level. Overall, this indicates that the bridging of top-down and bottom-up approaches would be essential.
Generally, many countries have recognized the importance of "Funding" (Fun) but not all have a clear focus on targeted funding (Figure 1). Notably, the UK has offered financial incentives in local outreach programmes, driving training and infrastructure upgrades. Some developing nations (ie, China & India) have allocated funding for local authorities to enhance the capacity and responsiveness of rescue systems. The funding to improve post-crash management helps to reduce traffic fatalities.

TOWARDS SYNERGY OF ROAD SAFETY COMPONENTS
With the launch of the Second Decade of Road Safety, the progress towards reducing road fatalities, especially in developing countries, must be accelerated. Based on the decoupling status and the evaluation scores of the nine policy components, synergies among road safety components can be identified by Association Rule Mining (ARM) using Artificial Intelligence techniques. To conduct ARM, the Apriori algorithm is applied to derive frequent item-sets from the database. This is determined by the minimum support rule, which indicates the number of items containing X to the total number of items. The minimum support rule is specified as 0.2 to capture common policy measures. Then, three additional association rules are established based on confidence, lift and conviction [9].
During the first Decade of Road Safety (2010-2019), four association rules are identified (Figure 1). The first is a three-item set with quantifiable targets within a realistic timeframe (Tar4), evaluation of road safety measures (Mon4), and a multi-instrumental action plan (Act4). The second but similar policy package is horizontal integration among different national department in road safety (Ins4), also combined with Tar4 and Act4. The third association rule consists of Mon4, Act4 and funding on specific road safety themes (Fun4). Finally, a two-item policy set comprises clear objectives aligning to multiple core strategies in a holistic framework (Obj5) and Act4.